SBML for optimizing decision support's tools

Many theoretical works and tools on epidemiological field reflect the emphasis on decision-making Tools by both public health and the scientific community, which continues to increase. Indeed, in the epidemiological field, modeling tools are proving a very important way in helping to make decision. However, the variety, the large volume of data and the nature of epidemics lead us to seek solutions to alleviate the heavy burden imposed on both experts and developers. In this paper, we present a new approach: the passage of an epidemic model realized in Bio-PEPA to a narrative language using the basics of SBML language. Our goal is to allow on one hand, epidemiologists to verify and validate the model, and the other hand, developers to optimize the model in order to achieve a better model of decision making. We also present some preliminary results and some suggestions to improve the simulated model

Pengembangan Kurikulum Pendidikan Agama Islam 2013 Integratif dalam Menghadapi Era Society 5.0

This study aims to develop the 2013 PAI curriculum through the integration of all curriculum components with the abilities needed in the era of society 5.0. The potentials required at the period of society 5.0 are the ability to solve problems, think critically and creatively, which will help humans to be able to take advantage of innovations in the industrial era 4.0. These abilities will be more optimal if accompanied by good manners. Therefore the 2013 PAI curriculum has a principal role in making it happen. Qualitative approaches and types of literature research are using in this study. Hence the data sources are taken from library sources. Research data were collected using documentation techniques, then analyzed by reading, understanding, examining, connecting, and concluding. From this research, it can be seen that the integration of society 5.0 era capabilities into the 2013 PAI curriculum will help educators to form a generation of nations who are ready to compete in the era of society 5.0 by mastering good character-based science and technology.Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan kurikulum PAI 2013 melalui integrasi semua komponen kurikulum dengan kemampuan yang dibutuhkan di era society 5.0. Kemampuan yang dibutuhkan di era society 5.0 adalah kemampuan dalam menyelesaikan masalah, berpikir kritis dan kreatif, yang akan membantu manusia untuk bisa memanfaatkan inovasi yang ada di era industry 4.0. Kemampuan-kemampuan tersebut akan lebih optimal jika disertai dengan budi pekerti yang baik, oleh karena itu kurikulum PAI 2013 memiliki peran penting dalam mewujudkannya. Pendekatan kualitatif dan jenis penelitian kepustakaan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini, oleh karena itu, sumber data diambil dari sumber pustaka. Data-data penelitian dikumpulkan dengan teknik dokumentasi, kemudian dianalisis dengan membaca, memahami, memeriksa, menghubungkan dan menyimpulkannya. Dari penelitian ini dapat diketahui bahwa pengintegrasian kemampuan era society 5.0 ke dalam kurikulum PAI 2013 akan membantu pendidik untuk membentuk generasi bangsa yang siap bersaing di era masyarakat 5.0 dengan menguasai ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi berbasis budi pekerti yang baik

Decision Support Based on Bio-PEPA Modeling and Decision Tree Induction: A New Approach, Applied to a Tuberculosis Case Study

The problem of selecting determinant features generating appropriate model structure is a challenge in epidemiological modelling. Disease spread is highly complex, and experts develop their understanding of its dynamic over years. There is an increasing variety and volume of epidemiological data which adds to the potential confusion. We propose here to make use of that data to better understand disease systems. Decision tree techniques have been extensively used to extract pertinent information and improve decision making. In this paper, we propose an innovative structured approach combining decision tree induction with Bio-PEPA computational modelling, and illustrate the approach through application to tuberculosis. By using decision tree induction, the enhanced Bio-PEPA model shows considerable improvement over the initial model with regard to the simulated results matching observed data. The key finding is that the developer expresses a realistic predictive model using relevant features, thus considering this approach as decision support, empowers the epidemiologist in his policy decision making

Waning immunity is associated with periodic large outbreaks of mumps: a mathematical modeling study of Scottish data

Vaccination programs for childhood diseases, such as measles, mumps and rubella have greatly contributed to decreasing the incidence and impact of those diseases. Nonetheless, despite long vaccination programmes across the world, mumps has not yet been eradicated in those countries: indeed, large outbreaks continue. For example, in Scotland large outbreaks occurred in 2004, 2005 and 2015, despite introducing the MMR (Measles- Mumps- Rubella) vaccine more than twenty years ago. There are indications that this vaccine-preventable disease is re-emerging in highly vaccinated populations. Here we investigate whether the resurgence of mumps is due to waning immunity, and further, could a booster dose be the solution to eradicate mumps or would it just extend the period of waning immunity? Using mathematical modelling we enhance a seasonally-structured disease model with four scenarios: no vaccination, vaccinated individuals protected for life, vaccinated individuals at risk of waning immunity, and introduction of measures to increase immunity (a third dose, or a better vaccine). The model is parameterised from observed clinical data in Scotland 2004-2015 and the literature. The results of the four scenarios are compared with observed clinical data 2004-2016. While the force of infection is relatively sensitive to the duration of immunity and the number of boosters undertaken, we conclude that periodic large outbreaks of mumps will be sustained for all except the second scenario. This suggests that the current protocol of two vaccinations is optimal in the sense that while there are periodic large outbreaks, the severity of cases in vaccinated individuals is less than in unvaccinated individuals, and the size of the outbreaks does not decrease sufficiently with a third booster to make economic sense. This recommendation relies on continuous efforts to maintain high levels of vaccination uptake

Improving process algebra model structure and parameters in infectious disease epidemiology through data mining

Computational models are increasingly used to assist decision-making in public health epidemiology, but achieving the best model is a complex task due to the interaction of many components and variability of parameter values causing radically different dynamics. The modelling process can be enhanced through the use of data mining techniques. Here, we demonstrate this by applying association rules and clustering techniques to two stages of mod- elling: identifying pertinent structures in the initial model creation stage, and choosing optimal parameters to match that model to observed data. This is illustrated through application to the study of the circulating mumps virus in Scotland, 2004-2015